Sold after the price rise from this announcement. They can make the sales projection, but it doesn't mean they'll hit it:
1. Small models are rapidly growing in capability, require less compute to train and serve
2. There are more suppliers now, both in China & the US (OpenAI even have their own inferencing hardware now)
3. Memory still constrains how much they can ship in the short term
It's all factored in! The unimaginably vastness of the cosmos: Past, future, at astronomical through Planck scales. You have no agency; free will is an emergent phenomenon. You are not smarter than all those quants with their Ivy league degrees and 7 figure salaries, surely; the only winning move is not to play.
Do not short it. I repeat, do not do this! Do not play the game of capitalism against expert capitalists who have spent the last few decades rigging the game more an more in their own favor. In very rare cases may be lucky but only for a short while. The more trades you make the more the odds stack against you, and you will loose everything.
In a game where the odds are stacked against you, the only winning move is not to play.
I couldn’t find the 1000b number, but if that is “ai buildout capex” that means you think that 67% of every dollar spent on building data centers, training models, and running inference, is going directly to nvidia.
Which is just silly on the face of it. Data centers need concrete, copper, DRAM, SSDs, and labour. That alone will cost more than 33%.
In the last week I’ve had a madman yell A.I. ‘facts’ at me as he tells me how to do my job. I’ve had employees forward A.I. generated text instead of doing the work properly and had a former employee send A.I. generated letters pleading for a job.
As you say, you have not stop caring. But its not necessarily easy to get to that point.
1. Small models are rapidly growing in capability, require less compute to train and serve 2. There are more suppliers now, both in China & the US (OpenAI even have their own inferencing hardware now) 3. Memory still constrains how much they can ship in the short term
In a game where the odds are stacked against you, the only winning move is not to play.
This is a financial advice.
Which is just silly on the face of it. Data centers need concrete, copper, DRAM, SSDs, and labour. That alone will cost more than 33%.
Surely the land is a double digit percentage of their budget? I know they build in the middle of nowhere, but even then.
As you say, you have not stop caring. But its not necessarily easy to get to that point.